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JPMorgan earnings out and higher U.S industrials figures expected

Friday 15th January 2010

By Christian Tegllund Blaabjerg, market strategist, Saxo Bank

Intel posted better than expected earnings yesterday and today's most earnings release is from JPMorgan. We expect JPMorgan to beat expectations.

Calendar
Economic Data Releases
 
 
Country
 Time (GMT)
 Name
 Saxo
 Consensus
 Prior
 
EZ
 10:00
 E-Z CPI MoM/YoY
 0.3%/0.9%
 0.3%/0.9%
 0.1%/0.5%
 
US
 13:30
 CPI MoM/YoY
 0.2%/2.8%
 0.2%/2.8%
 0.4%/1.8%
 
US
 14:15
 Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization
 0.5%/71.6%
 0.6%/71.8%
 0.8%/71.3%
 


 
Earnings Releases
 
 
Country
 Time (GMT) (G(GMT)(GMT)
 Name
 EPS exp.
 EPS prior
 Comment
 
US
 12:00
 JPMorgan
 0.602
 0.820
 
 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


What's going on?
 
·         Retail Sales were roughly in line with consensus yesterday when you adjust for revisions to November. Business Inventories meanwhile came in just 0.1%-point below our estimate (adjusted for revisions) and points to a strong contribution from inventories in Q4 GDP.

·         Plenty of macro data today with CPI (13:30) and Industrial Production (14.15) from the US among the most important ones (we are in line with consensus).

·         Intel reported earnings yesterday and beat the watered-down expectations. The gross margins are good and revenues increased 13% QoQ. However, the company is surprisingly bearish on Q1 results.

·         We remain bullish on risk and buy on dips in stocks today.

 

 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


FX
FX
 Daily stance
 Comment
 
EURUSD
 0/-
 Rebound seen limited to 1.4450-60 window. Sell there for 1.4385, stop abv 1.4515
 
USDJPY
 0/+
 Look to buy dips to 90.80-90 area for rebound back to 91.35, poss 91.55. Stop below 90.50
 
EURJPY
 0/+
 Buy dips to 131.25 for rebound to 132.35. Stop below 130.80
 
GBPUSD
 0/+
 Buy dips to 1.63 for another test of 1.6375. Stop below 1.6265
 
AUDUSD
 0
 Consolidation below 0.9325 res. N/t suppt 0.9265, 0.9230 behind. Break abv res sees 0.94
 

 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


FX Options
FX-Options
 Comment
 
EURUSD
 Backend vols started off being offered but found support after the ECB event – flattening
 
 
 out the curve. Gamma in general remains soft.
 
USDJPY
 Curve is lower across and seeing some buying interest in 2-3m upside low delta strikes.
 
 
 Riskies are holding steady and recent strikes traded seem to suggest a range around 9100.
 
AUDUSD
 Vols continue lower even as spot drops to 9260 lows. Market is still looking to get rid of
 
 
 gamma and with the long weekend in the US, front end should remain depressed.
 

 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Equities
Equities
 Daily stance
 Comment
 
DAX
 0/+
 Buy on dips towards 5990 targeting 6018. S/L below 5974.
 
FTSE
 0/+
 Buy on dips towards 5495 targeting 5520. S/L below 5480.
 
S&P500
 0/+
 Buy on dips towards 1143 targeting 1149. S/L below 1142.
 
NASDAQ100
 0/+
 
 
DJIA
 0/+
 
 

 


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Futures
Commodities
 Daily Stance
 Comment
 
Gold
 0/-
 Sell break below 1,135 for a test of 1,125 again. Stop abv 1,140
 
Silver
 0/-
 Sell break below 18.50 for 18.30 target, stop abv 18.70
 
Oil (CLG0)
 0/-
 Sell rallies to 79.50, still targeting 77.45 eventually. Stop abv 80.15
 

 





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