Economy stays flat to avoid recession

Monday 12th March 2012

UK output grew by 0.1% in the three months ending in February after a contraction of 0.2% in the three months ending in January 2012, according to the latest monthly estimates of GDP from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

Avoiding a return to recession is obviously welcome, but at present the UK economy can best be described as "flat". The NIESR expects the UK's economic recovery to take hold in 2013.

The NIESR said it interpreted the term "recession" to mean a period when output was falling or receding, while "depression" was a period when output was depressed below its previous peak. Thus, unless output turns down again, the recession is over, while the period of depression is likely to continue for some time.

The NIESR said it did not expect output to pass its peak in early 2008 until 2014.

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Mike Jones