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Accendo
ACCENDO30/06/10
BUY - United Utilities (UU)
Technical Commentary
Just above 516p base (23.6% Fibanacci 07-09 retracement) ... More
05/05/2010
BUY - Group 4 Securicor (GFS)
Technical Commentary
Although rising at slowish pace, we not strong line of rising support..More
20/04/2010
BUY - Capita Group (CPI)
Technical Commentary
Shares remain in strong upward trend, with strong support line..More
14/04/2010
BUY - Man Group (EMG)
Technical Commentary
Rising trend with strong support line from last March..More
12/04/2010
Sell - Aviva (AV)
Technical Commentry
Shares in overall down trend for last 2 years.. More
26/03/2010
Buy Experian (EXPN)
Technical Commentry
Shares remain strong in upward channel...More
25/03/2010
BUY - Compass Group (CPG)
Technical Commentry
After what appears to be to be a period of recent consolidation...More
18/03/2010
BUY - Legal and General (LGEN)
Technical Commentry
After several months in wide downtrend..More
17/03/2010
BUY - Bunzl (BNZL)
Technical Commentry
Shares strong since results end-Feb...More
12/03/2010
BUY - Anglo American (AAL)
Technical Commentry
Shares rising nicely in upward channel...More
09/03/2010
BUY - WPP Group (WPP)
Technical Commentry
Shares remain in strong primary uptrend since last march... More
04/03/2010
BUY - Tullow Oil (TLW)
Technical Commentry
Shares strong since last April, with slight breather from mid-Jan. Upward trend...More
02/03/2010
BUY - Petrofac (PFC)
Technical Commentry
Shares consolidating since last October, however, potential for recent breakout.. More
22/02/2010
Buy – Hunting (HTG)
SELL WOLSELEY (WOS)
28/01/10
Technical Commentary
Shares in plumbing materials group Wolseley have failed on no less than 5
occasions since August above the 1,500p, with the latest retreat below the
10 day moving average suggesting that while below this at 1,439p the
downside for the stock should be the 200 day moving average at 1,290p..
Fundamental Commentary
January 20th:
Royal Bank of Scotland increases its Wolseley price target to 1250p from
1075p on valuation. However, RBS maintains sell rating. It has concerns
that Wolseley's current profitability forecast relies heavily on the Ferguson
business in the US and sees continued risk that Ferguson's profitability will
come under incremental margin and volume pressure. Cost savings, on
RBS's forecasts, will exhaust rapidly in H2 '10. RBS also has concerns
about the group's ability to materially drive down debt.
Accendo Markets regards Wolseley as a sell after the recent rally, as even
RBS’s raised target of 1,250p is below the current share price. We expect
the technical trading target of 1,290p to be hit as the market realises the
lack of scope for future cost cutting to drive profitability and the risk of
relying on a US improvement at Fergusons. Sell
JOHNSON MATTHEY (JMAT)
27/01/10
Technical Commentary
Shares in platinum catalyst group Johnson Matthey have been in a rising
trend channel since October based at today’s low of 1,469p. While this area
holds, the upside for the shares is seen as a retest of the January
resistance zone above 1,600p.
Fundamental Commentary
January 25th:
Royal Bank of Scotland initiates coverage of Johnson Matthey at buy with
1800p price target. RBS says Johnson Matthey is the largest producer of
heavy-duty diesel catalysts, a market RBS expects to show a '08-'14
compound annual growth rate of 27 percent. Also, RBS thinks the strong
prospects for platinum should support the precious metals product profit.
RBS sees '10 as a difficult year but forecasts a strong recovery in '11 and
beyond. It notes Johnson Matthey is now trading at a discount to Umicore
(UMI.BT) rated sell, a departure from Johnson Matthey's significant
premium historically.
Accendo Markets backs the RBS view of Johnson Matthey as a buy on the
back of its relative value versus Umicore and the massive forecast annual
growth rate over the next few years. The fundamentals are supported by the
technical picture, which shows the stock has just rebounded from the
bottom of the recent price range. Buy.
VENDANTA RESOURCES (VED)
25/01/2010
Technical Commentary
Shares in India focused miner Vedanta Resources have been in a rising
trend channel in place since August, with the floor of the channel running
level with the current level of the 50-day moving average at 2,511p. At least
while above the initial October resistance of 2,394p, the upside for the
shares should be at least the 20-day moving average level of 2,699p.
Fundamental Commentary
January 11th:
Taking future production growth into account, Questor is reinstating its buy
stance (in Vedanta). Because of its cash position, the company has been
able to continue to invest throughout the downturn. The company does have
exposure to aluminium and zinc, two metals on which Questor is not
particularly bullish. However, revenues are likely to grow substantially over
the next few years because of its diverse commodity base. Goldman Sachs,
for example, forecasts Vedanta’s revenues will increase by 174pc between
2008 and 2013 - The Telegraph.
Accendo Markets backs Vedanta Resources after the latest dip to serious
chart support at around £25, and on the basis of compelling backing from
both Goldman Sachs’s revenue forecast up to 2013, and recent positive
press coverage regarding the company cash position and its ability to invest
in the downturn. Buy the recent share price weakness.
20/01/2010
Technical Commentary
Shares in construction / engineering group Balfour Beatty have been in a rising trend channel on the daily chart since December, with the floor of the channel currently running through 275p. While above this support the upside for the stock is seen as the one month price channel to currently heading for 305p.
Fundamental Commentary
January 15th: Balfour Beatty said overall, trading and the order book remain in line with the Interim Management Statement on 11 November 2009, when it said it expected 2009 to be a year of good progress and reported a high-quality order book of around GBP13.7bn. The balance sheet and financial position remains strong, with average net cash for the second half of the year being in excess of GBP300m. The breadth of the Balfour portfolio, enhanced by the acquisition of Parsons Brinckerhoff, means the Group is resilient and the board remain confident about the prospects for the Group overall, in spite of the economic uncertainties in some of its markets.
Accendo Markets reiterates its pre Christmas recommendation the basis of Balfour’s recent contract wins, and the acquisition of US project management firms Parsons Brinckerhoff and SpawMaxwell Company, both of which are contributing to Balfour's global expansion in infrastructure services. At 280p, Accendo Markets believes Balfour shares have the fundamental momentum to head to 310p and beyond in the early part of 2010. Buy.
19/01/2010
IMPERIAL TOBACCO (IMT)
Technical Commentary
Shares in tobacco giant Imperial Tobacco have been in a rising breakout trend channel since November, with the floor of the channel currently running through the 1,970p level, (the same as the 10-day moving average). While this zone is held, we expect the stock to make further advances to the 2-month price channel top at 2,200p over coming weeks.
Fundamental Commentary
January 19th: Evolution Securities keeps Imperial Tobacco at buy, with a target price of 2400p, following increases in retail prices of tobacco brands in Spain. It says the price rise has no tax element attached and so is a pure manufacturers increase and adds the macro picture in Spain is terrible, "so once again this is a display of industry pricing power even in markets in deep recession." Still, it views this move more as profit protection than profit advancement. Nonetheless, believes after a poor 2009, the Tobacco sector
will come back into vogue in 2010.
Accendo Markets views the Evolution Securities reiteration buy rating for Imperial Tobacco as timely after the price rises in Spain, and the likelihood that increased uncertainties for the stock market as a whole in 2010 versus 2009 should ensure that the defensive qualities of the tobacco sector are more in focus than ever. Buy.
18/01/2010
ASTRAZENECA (AZN)
Technical Commentary
Shares in drugs giant AstraZeneca have been in a rising trend channel since the end of October. The floor of the channel currently runs level with the 20-day moving average at 2,916p, and while above this double technical support, the upside for the stock should be as high as the three-month resistance line projection to 3,180p.
Fundamental Commentary
January 13th: Credit Suisse upgrades AstraZeneca to neutral from underperform, and lifts the target price to 3100p from 2820p. "We believe current valuation nowmore fairly reflects the long-term challenges facing the company, while expectations for 2010 pipeline events are more realistic following mixed newsflow through 2009," it says. However, while believing 2010 should see AstraZeneca trade in-line with the group, the brokerage continues to be more bearish on the mid-to-long term outlook for the company. "We believe the market is still underestimating the profit impact from the Arimidex and Seroquel patent expiries."
Accendo Markets views the Credit Suisse Astrazeneca upgrade to neutral as a final admission that the company is in play as a modestly valued stock yielding over 5 percent at its year highs. Equally, the upside for 2010 is not yet adequately priced in at current levels, creating something of an opportunity. Buy.
14/01/2010
SMITH & NEPHEW
Technical Commentary
The chart for medical equipment group Smith & Nephew shows the shares have been in a rising trend channel since August. While above the 20-day moving average at 634p in particular, it is likely that the stock will progress towards the top of the 5-month channel at 585p in the near term.
Fundamental Commentary
January 11th:
The prolonged cold snap across Europe and North America has led to a surge in fractures caused by slips and road accidents, boosting demand for orthopaedic trauma products used to fix broken bones. The weather should provide a near-term sales boost for companies like Switzerland's Synthes and British-based Smith & Nephew, according to Evolution Securities, who upgraded both stocks on Monday. But a spokesman for Smith & Nephew said the picture was complex and several offsetting factors meant the overall impact of the weather could be broadly neutral. Although a spokesman for Smith & Nephew says the weather impact is broadly neutral, the market thinks otherwise as the company and its trauma products are currently emerging as clear winners from the cold snap. This pattern is unlikely to be offset sufficiently to prevent a positive effect on the bottom line. Accendo Markets believes the ongoing uptrend in the shares backs the strong buy argument.
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The past performance of any investment is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of shares or income from them may go down as well as up. The value of shares may rise as well as fall due to the volatility of world markets, economic conditions/data and/or changes in the rate of exchange in the currency in which the investments are denominated. You may not necessarily get back the amount you invested. If you are in any doubt about investment, you should seek independant financial advice.
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